Carl Golden: Trump’s nomination unlikely 2023

As Donald Trump extends his lead in Republican presidential primary polls, the idea of his “inevitability” grows.

Early polls show Trump leading Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by 30 points. Former vice president Mike Pence and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley have struggled despite aggressive campaigns. Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson, and Scott scarcely register.

Trump’s baggage—a criminal indictment, three state or federal investigations, and a rape defamation suit—would disqualify any candidate.

Trump has casually dismissed all the claims as a government/media witch hunt to prevent his reelection.

Trump retains Republican support despite legal difficulties. After Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg indicted him for commercial fraud, support increased.

Trump suggested he would not participate in party-sanctioned debates because the matter has already been resolved in his favor and face-to-face confrontations would be meaningless.

His ability to connect with the disaffected, those millions who share Trump’s disdain for the “elites,” the upper class who view working people as unthinking, uneducated rubes incapable of understanding the nation’s problems, is shown by the party base’s loyalty.

Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign dubbed them gun- and religion-lovers who maligned others.

Trump’s message resonates in split America. His fans love his attitude and ferocity. They perceive someone who will intimidate the nation’s foes and challenge rather than cower.

Many feel his 2020 defeat to President Biden was rigged and are ready to ignore the absence of evidence. They agree that the media is “an enemy of the people,” spreading disinformation and hate of Trump.

Polling 20 months before the presidential election is unreliable. In the year before the primary election, a lot may happen to reshape the political landscape.

If he is charged with criminal conduct for allegedly interfering in the election process, possessing classified material, or worse, encouraging a mob of supporters to assault the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, to prevent Biden’s official certification, will his supporters reconsider or his support erode?

His support looks unshakable, but not invincible. Party leaders who fear his candidacy will cost Republicans the White House and control of Congress must unite behind a Trump alternative, use their organizational and fund-raising skills, and convince Trump voters that the party shares their concerns.

President Biden faces one of the most vulnerable re-election campaigns in modern history in 2024. Crime, immigration, and inflation keep his job performance at 40%. Most Democrats favor another candidate due to his age, intellect, and physical condition.

Trump must not win the Republican nomination.

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